politics

Pretty interesting. The most likely scenario in the 538 model was what happened. That Trump would win all 7 swing states.

This happened in 20% of the simulations. 14% of the time it was Harris that won all swing states. And that was the second most common outcome.

The model gave it 50-50 chance of each side winning overall.

It seems counter intuitive, but it’s also unlikely to roll a 7 with two dice. It only happens 16.7% of the time. But that is the most likely outcome.

The overall chances for who would win was 50-50. So I guess the model got it right because it said both sides could win. Or did it get it wrong because it said both sides could win and only one side won 🤔🤔

PS. For anyone that thinks the polls / market are nonsense and you know better, I recommend you make some bets on the next election. You could have close to doubled your money if you bet on Trump a few days before the election.

summary_large_image

Took me a bit to realize this, but it turns out the actual election map we got on Tuesday was the model's modal map — the one that occurred by far the most often in our simulations!

https://t.co/bMJJD6seP7

Nate Silver

Pretty interesting. The most likely scenario in the 538 model was what happened. That Trump would win all 7 swing states.

This happened in 20% of the simulations. 14% of the time it was Harris that won all swing states. And that was the second most common outcome.

The model gave it 50-50 chance of each side winning overall.

It seems counter intuitive, but it’s also unlikely to roll a 7 with two dice. It only happens 16.7% of the time. But that is the most likely outcome.

The overall chances for who would win was 50-50. So I guess the model got it right because it said both sides could win. Or did it get it wrong because it said both sides could win and only one side won 🤔🤔

PS. For anyone that thinks the polls / market are nonsense and you know better, I recommend you make some bets on the next election. You could have close to doubled your money if you bet on Trump a few days before the election.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1854654010369753222

Building getinboxzero.com and sharemint.xyz.

I also run a YouTube channel, "Learn from Open Source": youtube.com/elie2222 

I’m not claiming models or the market are infallible. But I do think they’re better than most people.

The only way to really know is to make 100 bets against the market and see if you end up on top by the end of it. If not, the market is smarter than you.