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Elie
@elie
To all the Americans that don't understand betting markets/Polymarket: Betting markets have existed forever. Polymarket is one of many. It stands out in being crypto native. But not for the odds it offers. There isn't some special opportunity on Polymarket because it's "new". The prices on Polymarket represent the overall market. And if they didn't there'd be an arbitrage opportunity (which would close quickly). It's a bit like opening a new crypto exchange. The BTC price will be the same as the global price. Here's a list of 20 betting sites where you can bet on Biden: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/democratic-candidate If you think the odds you see are wrong, then bet against them and get rich. But it's not as easy as it sounds. Most people lose.
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Ed
@eds
Betting markets haven't been around 'forever' at least in the US. First legal one was PredictIt, and the trading volume was low (in part because of the betting limits) so you really could make money if you're reasonably informed. I made some money betting on Biden's Supreme Court nominee because a DC-based lawyer told me who it would be, and made some money betting against ridiculous meme stuff (like the silly idea that Michelle Obama would run for president). Again, not a lot of money because there are limits, but it's not anything like the stock market where arbitrage opportunities are closed instantly by high frequency trading algos.
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Elie
@elie
Yes. Key point is in the US. lol…
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Elie
@elie
This is betting from 2016 on just betfair: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/betting-sites-see-record-wagering-on-us-presidential-election.html Also has 2012 data of $50m bet.
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Ed
@eds
But another key difference is on new sites like PredictIt or Polymarket, you can bet on 50 different events in US politics, not just the general election presidential winner. I doubt you could bet on the VP candidate on these overseas markets.
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