Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Looking for terminally online news junkies. 1. You check X / Twitter first thing in the morning and the last thing before you go to bed at night. 2. you know what OSINT means without looking it up 3. you know who nate silver and nate cohn are (and what publications they currently work for) 4. if asked on the street, you could give an accurate summary of the recent geopolitical developments in Europe, Middle East and Latin America in the past week If this is you, please reply here.
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Dean Pierce 👨💻🌎🌍
@deanpierce.eth
I feel like Nate Silver hasn't been relevant in a long time 🤔 Last I checked, social media broke his models a decade ago and he's just been shit posting nonsense since then. Has that actually changed?
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Who has a better model?
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Dean Pierce 👨💻🌎🌍
@deanpierce.eth
IMO there is no longer a way to collect meaningful demographic samplings since every polling method expresses bias against people who don't use that communication medium. A critical mass of people have also realized they have every incentive to lie to pollsters. By under-stating or mis-stating preferences, they can increase ad funding towards their preferred causes. Most people in most important demographics will just ignore pollsters. The best you can hope for is gauging sentiment in certain social clusters, but then there's really no way of knowing who's actually going to vote. Sentiment analysis is also really hard to measure without getting gamed. Then there's the problem that polling is expensive, and the only people who publish polls now are people trying to manipulate the narrative in favor of whoever is sponsoring them. Literally no one else has any incentive to publish polling numbers. It's all just mindless fiction until election day. There are more worthwhile things to pay attention to.
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JD
@jurisprudence
Polymarket lol
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