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six
@six
I think I timed the picotop here JD Vance was the turning point, left is winning on memetics atm like the couch thing and the "weird" thing. whereas the right is starting to feel a bit corny and out of touch lets see
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
> JD Vance was the turning point, left is winning on memetics atm like the couch thing and the "weird" thing. errrrr
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six
@six
what do you disagree with? i'd say my feed was pretty right-dominant, up until vance had that mountain dew bit and then people starting doubting his vibes
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
1. I don't think the average swing state voter is terminally online, so the memetics are way less important than something like the Trump post-shooting photo 2. Average swing state voter doesn't find JD Vance to be "weird"—they may disagree with some or all of his policy positions, but he's closer to "Joe six pack" than any major party pick since Palin? 3. Ultimately, election comes down to excitement / antipathy about one of the candidates enough to get people to go out and vote. That's how Trump won in 2016 (anti-Clinton voters) and lost in 2020 (anti-Trump voters). Seems like anti-Trump voters are less intense this cycle (thus why he's ahead in Nate Silver model / prediction markets).
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six
@six
Oh yes I agree with all of this, I'm just talking conceptually about the state of the online culture wars, not the election outcomes (though i think over time as zoomers start voting it will become more important)
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proxy
@proxystudio.eth
post biden drop-out, vance weird vibes, kamala memes hitting definite shift in the meta, although a lot of the people I know making those memes don't actually want to vote for harris. but they'd not vote for trump either. I'd wager its going to be a tighter race than the right expected when Biden was the candidate
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
I think the market and forecasters have already said as much, but let's see where it normalizes in September (post-convention bump for Harris). Still very much behind (considering how poorly Trump has done in polls in both in 2016 and 2020). https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-trump-electoral-college
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proxy
@proxystudio.eth
yeah, its really still too early to say but trump certainly leading. its so fun having @polymarket with such lively volume this cycle, makes the data feel much more meaningful
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