Founders

"..it must be accepted that forecasts are even less likely to prove correct than usual."

Founders and Forecasts go hand in hand. 

How we make them. 

The probability we assign them. 

How we learn who and what to trust in our process are all vital to predicting the future. 

In times of massive uncertainty, where the sky's are no longer blue, and the course less clear, re-evaluating our convictions and updating our mental models is vital.

Been reading Howard Marks on an off since starting my career. 

Was timely this weekend:

A few other gems from within:

"But if trade barriers were to require Italy to make its own watches and Switzerland to make its own pasta, the citizens in both countries would probably end up paying more for products they used to buy cheaper from abroad, or consuming inferior products made locally, or both"

"with heretofore unimaginable risks on the table and priced in, it’s appropriate to sniff around for bargains: the babies that are being thrown out with the bath water."

Be on the case.

Been reading Howard Marks on an off since starting my career. 

Was timely this weekend:

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again

Uncertainty means refocusing my mental model on what I can control and paying little attention to the rest. 

Has the added benefit of a good night sleep too