coinbase

King $COIN's Calculated Moves

As Q1 earnings season approaches, and with Coinbase reporting on May 2nd, we're excited to introduce one of our latest tools for Delphi subscribers: 

🎉Coinbase Transaction Revenue Calculator🎉

In our deep dive - Coinbase: From Sleeping Giant To Industry Leader - we examined Coinbase’s overall business highlighting burgeoning new LOBs. 

Yet, underscored that transactional revenue continued to be the backbone of the overall business.

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Leveraging this insight, our revenue calculator forecasts & models Coinbase’s transaction revenues.

By analyzing real-time transactional volume data, this tool lets you adjust variables like fees, revenue splits, and trading vol, transforming raw data into insightful fiscal projections.

Prior to the Q4 2023 results, the efficacy of our calculator resulted in a forecast within +2.5% and +6.7% of the final reported Coinbase revenue. 

In contrast, conservative Wall Street estimates were off by -14% — demonstrating the edge of our calculator.

Entering Q1 earnings season, the landscape is expected to shift.

New revenue streams catalyze change: 

🔷 Bitcoin ETFs - for the majority of which Coinbase acts as a custodian
🔷 Surging activity on the Base chain
🔷 Explosion of the Coinbase International Derivatives exchange

Nevertheless, our analysis suggests that the traditional correlation between transaction volumes, fees, and revenue will likely persist - mirroring similar patterns observed in previous quarters. 

On top of this, Wall Street is still projecting out conservative estimations.

Using the latest Q1 2024 data, our calculator projects transaction revenue of $1.06 billion for the quarter — significantly exceeding the Wall Street consensus estimates of $660.4 million.

Reiterating our belief that Wall Street undervalues Coinbase's business.

🚨Disclaimer🚨

This tool is not intended as an all-knowing predictor of total revenues, but more of a pulse check on its largest driver, with the goal of more accurately gauging Coinbase’s metrics ahead of official announcements.

Delve into the calculator’s assumptions, adjust the parameters, and let us know what you think! 

Are there additional data points or different models you’d like to see?

Comment in the replies below 👇

Delve into the calculator’s assumptions, adjust the parameters, and let us know what you think! 

Are there additional data points or different models you’d like to see?

Comment in the replies below 👇
https://delphi.link/cb-calculator

Great stuff. Incredibly bullish Coinbase and Base.