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ted (not lasso)
@ted
the feed feels stale these past 2 weeks with attention on X for trump/biden, lack of anything exciting in crypto (sorry, prove me wrong), ethCC, and general summer offlineness. so plz reply with a hot take or an exciting project or something anything that will give @randomerror.eth’s back a break from carrying us all
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//trip
@heytrip.eth
Polymarket and X don't represent the voting population of america *at all* trump is still a fucking clown who's own VP called him a "reprehensible idiot" and previously compared him to hitler so Fuck Your Bags & stop praising the rapist felon who has never given a flying FUCK about anyone but himself 😤
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✳️ dcposch on daimo
@dcposch.eth
polymarket is not meant to “represent” anyone. it’s a prediction market where you make money if you are right and lose money if you’re wrong. if you think 70% is too high, sell!
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//trip
@heytrip.eth
im aware, but that doesnt stop people from using it as such
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MOLO
@molo
“prediction market” does seem like an intentionally misleading name for “casino” 😅
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✳️ dcposch on daimo
@dcposch.eth
unlike your average blackjack table, prediction markets generate something useful to everyone else who’s not playing: predictions about the future. Empirically those predictions are very accurate.
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MOLO
@molo
some interesting (unfortunately limited due to regulations) research about accuracy in prediction markets https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/0895330041371321 seems that it may be even more accurate for things where odds can only be measured by people educated guessing, like “who will be the next VP pick” but for something with data like election polls, feels like traders could either know the same information or less?
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