market on polymarket that I'm paying attention to:

3% = 0 on Polymarket

Their protocol cannot currently handle probabilities near 0 or 100 over a long time horizon

Daimo Pay. Build once, distribute everywhere

It’s the first one. You could make a Polymarket for “sun explodes before Jan 1 2026” and it would sit at 3% because treasuries yield more than that over the same timeframe

my explanation to this is: 

- the opportunity cost (deposit & wait) is higher than the return

- oracle attack market or polymarket shutdown market