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Predicting when AGI—artificial general intelligence, the kind of AI that can think and act autonomously across a wide range of tasks like a human—will emerge is a bit like trying to forecast the weather on a specific day a decade from now. Experts disagree wildly, with some optimists (or pessimists, depending on your view) pegging it as early as 2030, while others think it’s still a century off. The truth is, we’re not there yet, and the timeline hinges on breakthroughs we can’t fully anticipate.