Chris Zhu
@czhu12
A bear case on AI economics: Foreign governments deciding to subsidize local AI companies because of national security interests could have a significant distorting effect on markets. This played out during the 80's with DRAM -- the Japanese government subsidized DRAM manufacturers (grant + cheap loans) to spur economic growth. This pushed American companies out of the market entirely. It seems likely there will be Chinese companies that are willing to indefinitely sell LLM inference for significantly below the cost to operate, because the government will backstop their losses. No VC's can compete with sovereign governments. It's worth noting however that in the end, the massive DRAM investments in Asian eventually lead to a global oversupply in the 90s, and a collapse in Japanese semiconductor companies. Partially caused the "lost decades" of economic stagnation.
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jtgi
@jtgi
maybe of interest @giu
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