Bitcoin Spending Power Law: A New Predictable Framework
Glassnode's new research reveals how Bitcoin holder behavior follows a power-law decay, offering a groundbreaking perspective on coin age and spending probabilities.

Executive Summary
- Spending probability drops by a factor of 10 for every tenfold increase in coin age, creating a measurable and predictable pattern.

- Coins held for over 3-4 years rarely move, signaling either strong conviction or potential loss.

- A simple heuristic predicts with 98% accuracy that coins younger than 7 days will move, providing actionable short-term insights.

This framework enables investors to segment holders into behavior-driven cohorts and track market sentiment with greater precision.

Read more in the full research report here.