Papatoshi’s Action Politics
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In Silver Bulletin polling average, Harris now leads Trump by 3.1%, 46.8-43.7%. Cook Political Report polling of swing states finds Harris leading in Arizona (46-42%), Michigan (46-44%), N. Carolina (46-44%), Pennsylvania (48-43%), and Wisconsin (48-43%). The most important state among these is Pennsylvania. If Harris can deny Trump Pennsylvania, he has almost no path to retaking the White House.

Silver polling average: https://papatoshi.com/24Silver14

Cook Political Report: https://papatoshi.com/24Cook14