skininthegame

Pretty fascinating by the polymarket whale

tldr: “neighbor method” is a better poll method. Asking somebody who their neighbor is going to vote for reveals preferences better than asking individuals who they will vote for

Pretty fascinating by the polymarket whale

tldr: “neighbor method” is a better poll method. Asking somebody who their neighbor is going to vote for reveals preferences better than asking individuals who they will vote for

https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d

Neighbor method is more accurate than individual polling in predicting election outcomes. The Trump whale's strategy was fascinating