Chip, tell me, up or down?

The sentiment according to Kaito (the digitized mood of market participants) has dropped significantly, deviating sharply from the trend line. However, the overall market capitalization of the crypto market hasn't caught up with this drop in sentiment yet.

In this case, what's the tail and what's the dog? As we can see from this chart, sentiment usually precedes price. It surged in September-October 2023, and then the price followed.

TradFi since 2013, Crypto since 2017. Author of Telegram channels t.me/chipda t.me/momentum t.me/iintellect t.me/bizlikecrypto

There's gloom all over the chats... Except for the flip-flop lovers who are already figuring out if they can afford a German car, or if they'll have to settle for a Chinese EV. And real crypto enthusiasts, especially if their portfolio hasn't seen growth in this bull run, are wondering if they're in the right field.

But the market is cyclical.

Sentiment will return to the trend line and the price will follow. This is likely tied to Jerome Powell's speeches and the prospects of quantitative easing in the US. As we discussed earlier, the market needs a liquidity event to turn the sentiment around.

We'll keep an eye on this chart and stay tuned. Don't go anywhere.

Does this mean that the crypto prices will drop even further in the next couple of months? Quite possibly. Given the overall negative sentiment around VC coins with low circulation and high FDV, waning interest in meme coins, and BTC's reluctance to reach ATH. Ethereum is unlikely to see significant inflows at the start of ETF trading, and Solana will likely deflate following the declining demand for memes.

The market is also facing billions of dollars in Bitcoin from Mt. Gox, the US, and German governments that need to be absorbed.

It's quite possible that the third quarter will be very tough for crypto, and everything will drop as if it's a bear market, not a bull market.

$44-48K for Bitcoin seems like a good zone for a market reset before the elections. Where altcoins will be is frightening to imagine.