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@chenqiuyu

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458 Followers


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The US cpi data is so good that the market is already betting on three rate cuts this year. From a financial market perspective, the current data does justify two or three rate cuts. But at a higher political level, I don't think it's that simple. The most important thing for the US is not the inflation number or the employment number, but the US stock market. The US stock market is to the US what real estate is to China, the foundation of the country. Now the US stock market is still hitting new highs despite the high interest rate of 5%, and there is no need to cut interest rates in the short term. Moreover, from the previous Federal Reserve rate cuts, US stocks generally fall first and then rise, if the rate cut in July or September, it is very unfavorable to the US election in November.
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A friend in front asked if there was a cliff like decline in the stock of BTC on the exchange, which represents a rapid increase in purchasing power. However, in reality, there has not been a cliff like decline. On the contrary, compared to the same period yesterday, the stock of # BTC on the exchange has increased by more than 4000. Yesterday at this time, the minimum stock for six years was 35000 BTC, and now it has risen to almost exceed 40000 BTC. These are all real pressures, especially the nearly 5000 BTC transferred today, which is likely to be looking for better opportunities to leave. I hope that the next two days at the end of the week will not replicate Friday's market trend. Once again, this is not bearish or FUD, it's just a statement of a fact. Believe it or not, it's all here. These BTCs may not necessarily leave on the weekend, but they are on the exchange and may take action at any time.
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Back to the opening of the US stock market, although the liquidity and turnover rate rose some, but BTC temporarily remained above $63,000, at least to show that the current US investors have no urgent impulse to leave, and from the data level, the change of early investors is getting lower and lower, a large number of changes are still concentrated in short-term investors. $64,000 to $69,000 has fallen for more than a week, but today, less than 13,000 #BTC have changed hands in this range, accounting for about 11% of the overall change rate, and the largest selling pressure is concentrated in holders of $60,000 to $61,000, so the current chip gathering area is still not destroyed. The support position on the chain is also very strong. Therefore, unless the support range of this maximum chip gathering is destroyed, the price will still be in a relatively stable state. Us stocks have a day and a half off this week, and the biggest macro game is Friday's non-farm data.
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I dare to say it, but it may not be right. DePin's bottom logic is to earn online, why, if we look at #BTC as a DePIn project: 1. Power supply mining machine 2. The miner performs hash operation 3. Find a valid hash 4. Receive block rewards and transaction fees So it can be clearly seen that electricity is converted into computing power, computing power is converted into rewards, and ultimately the price of BTC is calculated through electricity bills, which is why many partners often prefer to look at electricity bills when calculating BTC prices. So my understanding is that what DePin does is to buy a "ticket" to convert energy into rewards by selling hardware, and energy is actually the basis for pricing rewards. Electricity energy is to consider electricity costs, and human energy is to consider labor costs, such as Stepn (running shoes), even human mining machines.
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