politics

Very suspicious that the numbers have changed so dramatically in the absence of any political news events.

Artist from the future.

NFTs since 1998.

Bitcoin since 1985.

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https://manifold.gallery/tomato

It's a platform with a right-wing bias and many of the participants aren't even based in the US. It's just gambling.

People are quick to dismiss Polymarket odds but they're missing two things:

1. The shift is real according to Real Clear Politics swing state polls. Harris is on a downward trend since she adopted conservative talking points.

2. While forecast shows a Trump win within the margin of error, it's normal for expectation to be exaggerated in prediction markets. Similar in other betting sites.

It's not just Polymarket
https://warpcast.com/chainleft/0x9871d51d

It's a combination of real shift and the shift being reflected in exaggeration because of the way human psychology transforms binary outcomes into continuous ones (another way to put it: when sth has 50.2% possibility to happen, you expect it to be a lot more likely than the other)

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