crypto

Catch up w/ a few old frens who are also founders yesterday. Last time we saw each other irl was last cycle & a different country. 

Thoughts on current market consensus: 

1. This cycle crypto trading getting dominated by tradfi giants due to ETF flow. CME volume surpassed offshore cex volumes.

2. ETF flow only cares BTC + ETH. No new money inflow into other sectors. 

3. Existing narratives all from last cycle & become saturate: L2s, ZKs, Alt L1s, super fast chains, intents. Emotion exhaustion reflected on dry liquidity. No one cares (as much!), no money actively trades those assets; 

4. Ton's large user base attracts ppl attention on the "mass adoption" narrative, only one that sounds attractive for now; 

5.  If we see crypto as only about finance, that's it now. it largely turns into a sector in tradefi; 

6. if we still hold belief in crypto holds sth new, must have other use case scenario cross the chasm for new ppl, new narrative, new mood & new money get in

completely agree with all of this, esp the TON bit

i think AI and rapid increase in surveillance from gov helps trigger a shift in normies