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Roman Buzko
@buzko
An unpopular opinion, but here we go. Telegram’s TON is in a risky spot. It thrived over the past couple of years thanks to regulatory arbitrage, while Ethereum and Solana were under constant fire in the U.S. Now, with the U.S. crypto policy making a complete 180° turn, everyone is in the same boat. TON’s only—but very strong—advantage is its distribution through Telegram. 👇
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Roman Buzko
@buzko
But that edge could easily fade once Twitter (X) [1], Meta, and others start integrating crypto without fear of backlash from Trump’s new administration. TON’s January hire of Stotz to defend its U.S. interests [2] and the ban on other blockchains in Telegram [3] are the first warning signs.
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Roman Buzko
@buzko
This year, SOL is set to be packaged into an ETF, putting it alongside ETH and BTC in the eyes of traditional investors. For TON, that kind of future looks far less likely due to the SEC v. Telegram precedent [4]. Telegram will remain an amazing messenger with TON attached as a side project they push onto every user. Most of its mini-apps (TMA) are either copied from other ecosystems or primitive games straight out of VK’s golden era.
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Roman Buzko
@buzko
Back in 2018, Telegram should have launched its own stablecoin and integrated it into the messenger instead of the whole Gram fiasco. By now, it would have been a billion-dollar business (see USDT [5]), purely thanks to its massive user base. Instead, they picked a fight with the SEC, ran headfirst into disaster, and made Skadden a lot of money.
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Roman Buzko
@buzko
[1] https://x.com/lindayax/status/1884254005188034772?s=46 [2] https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/18958341001281 [3] https://decrypt.co/302023/telegram-exclusive-ton-barring-other-networks [4] https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020-146 [5] https://news.bitcoin.com/tether-estimates-net-profits-for-2024-to-exceed-10-billion/
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