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sunny
@blocksunny
This month's dot plot and interest rate meeting is over, and while this outcome was not what the market expected, the fact that it has happened means that the market has to acknowledge that it has now accepted the expectation that there may only be one rate cut , but that doesn't mean that the next data is meaningless.
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sunny
@blocksunny
So for now it's September's dot plot that can be gamed, once or twice. Beyond that, the monthly macro releases will still make markets volatile, only with slightly lower energy, such as this evening's one-year inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.
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sunny
@blocksunny
If these five data trends are good, including the core PCE fell (below 2.6%), wage increases fell, unemployment rate increased (more than 4.2%), will be judged by the Federal Reserve re-adjustment of interest rate cuts will have a role, the first two data on behalf of the inflation may be under control
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sunny
@blocksunny
Now only in June, from the end of the year and half a year, assuming that December is the first and last rate cut, the market will also go through the July, September and November three interest rate meeting, there will be June, July, August, September, October this five times data.
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sunny
@blocksunny
As Powell repeatedly stressed, the dot plot is only the Fed officials' personal ideas, does not represent the Fed's final decision, the dot plot or the final number of interest rate cuts is still in accordance with the monthly inflation and non-farm payrolls data to decide.
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nanyu（互关秒回）
@nanyu
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