your friendly neighborhood IC

One of the main reasons I think higher inflation is not happening as a result of tariffs: they've been so clearly and relentlessly telegraphed and communicated by Trump that everyone has been front-running

I think inflation fears are overblown

building a crypto hedge fund | /comma, comma.org/, & /ic | in pursuit of more aliveness | prev: founding team @ Tally Health, investor @ L Catterton

Art of Auto Self-Generation in the Pursuit of Enlightenment (Zero)

Interesting. Also sounds like a delay in inflation

Businesses are buying necessary inputs subject to possible tariffs 1-2 quarters ahead. Pulls forward the purchase before tariffs go live.

As a result, it shows up in Q1 GDP (negative impact). So I think Q1 GDP is going to be weak, people are going to freak, but reality is that it's because the net export portion is greatly exacerbated due to businesses pulling forward purchases (driving net export higher since imports stay roughly the same while exports go way up).

TL;DR: I think inflation is over-FUD, GDP slow-down over-FUD, will all be fine. Will take 1 or 2 quarters to smooth out.