Nguyễn Phương Nhi on Warpcast

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Nguyễn Phương Nhi

A New Framework For Identifying Moats In Crypto Markets While we have numerous precedents and heuristics for understanding moats in traditional markets, we lack equivalent frameworks that account for these structural differences. > This piece aims to bridge this gap by getting to the root of what constitutes a sustainable moat, and downstream of this, identify the handful of apps positioned to sustainably capture value

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The combination of TON and Telegram has the potential to solve crypto's 'first mile problem'. The low entry barrier and mobile-focus design of Telegram-based applications offer users a chance to gradually adapt to the crypto ecosystem. The T2E (Tap-to-Earn) model has played a significant role in initial user acquisition with its risk-free profitability and intuitive features.

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Projects like Notcoin and Hamster Kombat have shown remarkable growth, demonstrating TON ecosystem's potential. Their success clearly illustrates the effectiveness of leveraging Telegram's user base for distribution. Their stories are attracting more developers to the ecosystem by proving Telegram's capability to attract users to their applications.

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This article analyzes TON's explosive growth and its synergy with Telegram, exploring their impact on the crypto ecosystem, potential as a super app, and current challenges.

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Analyzing TON's explosive growth and its synergy with Telegram, exploring their impact on the crypto ecosystem, potential as a super app, and current challenges.

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Notcoin's success was nothing short of phenomenal. During its beta phase alone, it saw over 600,000 users mine a staggering 60 billion Notcoins. By its official launch in January 2024, the user base had swelled to 4 million. This explosive growth outpaced even the most successful GameFi projects like Axie Infinity and STEPN, and remarkably, Notcoin hit the 1 million user milestone faster than ChatGPT. What makes this achievement even more impressive is that it was accomplished without a single dollar spent on marketing, relying entirely on virals and organic spread within the Telegram ecosystem.

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Their vision soon bore unexpected fruit with the launch of Notcoin in November 2023. This simple Tap-to-Earn Telegram Mini App (TMA) quickly gained traction, attracting users with its intuitive functionality and air of mystery. Notcoin initially withheld information about its team and project, sparking curiosity with the enigmatic slogan "Probably Nothing."

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Up until 2022, TON continued development with initiatives like a username marketplace called Fragment. However, it was largely fading from public consciousness, viewed as a relic of the past. TON's resurgence was declared at a Token2049 session in 2023, where it announced a partnership with Telegram. They unveiled an in-app wallet called Wallet and TON Space, a non-custodial wallet, expressing their intention to focus on users and applications rather than technology and narratives.

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TON's history traces back to the ICO boom of 2017. However, its development was halted due to SEC sanctions amidst a rapidly deflating market bubble. The project was later revived by the community, evolving into the current iteration of TON after numerous challenges.

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Can Telegram and TON leverage their competitive advantages to become the super app of crypto? This article will explore the current state of the TON ecosystem, its vast potential, and the formidable challenges it must overcome to achieve its ambitious goals.

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However, despite its immense potential, TON faces significant challenges. Many of the games on the platform are still rudimentary, relying on simple token designs and unsustainable reward models. Most are basic Tap-To-Earn or idle games that offer passive rewards for minimal interaction.

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TON's competitive edge is clear. It's built on the back of Telegram, the fourth-largest messaging app globally, boasting nearly a billion monthly active users. Telegram's user base continues to grow steadily, potentially challenging the positions of its larger rivals soon. This grants TON access to a vast social graph, a scale that's unparalleled in the crypto industry. Since Facebook abandoned its Libra project, TON stands as the only major social platform actively working to build an onchain ecosystem with a global user base.

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TON's meteoric rise has become impossible to ignore. Throughout this year, the ecosystem has consistently demonstrated impressive achievements in both development and user engagement. The number of monthly active wallets has exploded from a 100k a year ago to a 10 million today. This growth trajectory is remarkable even by Web2 standards, especially considering that other blockchain networks have seen sharp declines in transaction volumes and user numbers since the beginning of the year.

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TON and Telegram's experiment will be an important milestone for the future of the crypto industry, vividly demonstrating the potential impact of platforms with large user bases on the crypto ecosystem and the challenges and opportunities in the process of crypto's mainstream adoption.

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Currently, most applications in the TON ecosystem face issues with quality and sustainability, and the user base primarily consists of low-value users. Applications focusing on simple game mechanics and primitive token farming show limitations in long-term user retention and value creation.

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However, TON is culturally and technically isolated from the mainstream ecosystem, making it challenging to attract developers and integrate with other ecosystems. Its unique structure and programming language create high entry barriers for developers and present disadvantages in terms of compatibility with other blockchain infra and middleware utilization.

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The App Center serves as a centralized hub for discovering and distributing crypto applications within Telegram, significantly enhancing user accessibility. It provides a familiar, app store-like interface that allows users to explore various services without leaving the platform, potentially accelerating crypto adoption.

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