Adam Baybutt

@baybutt

31 Following

63 Followers

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The elusive one-handed economist… JPow tightens 25 bps with the left, Eases another $100B with the right.

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An oxymoron: Risk-free asset.

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If only one had access to a real time measure of everyone’s likelihood to withdraw deposits tomorrow…

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“Why is this AI being so mean to us?” Um, who do you think it learned it from?!

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Taleb strikes again. https://i.imgur.com/Cx8TftF.jpg

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Tokenterminal.com looking best in class for onchain valuation metrics.

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So Gary and his cronies can steal $30MM from Kraken under the guise of “protecting the public”, but Was anyone actually misled about an investment product? Seems more like: “you are doing business without our permission.”

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A super draft mental model: US politicians are competing primarily on dimension of fundraising (given -> ad spend -> votes). In kind of red queen race on this dim. Politicians don’t realize dimensions of character and policy are so poorly explored. It seems the bar is incredibly low.

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It def seems correct to be Altman-level optimistic. Eg: 2020: -world pop: ~8B -global wealth: ~$510,000B -wealth per cap: $60k 2100: -world pop: ~10.5B -global wealth: $30,000,000B -wealth per cap: $600k Ten times as rich in a few gen. (Assume: our world in data pop growth; ~only~ 3% real return on wealth.)

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import time import fc while True: fc.cast(“ A committee of twelve unelected Americans sets global asset prices.”) time.sleep(60*60*24*7)

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Hard and decentralized money is the norm. It was only 50 years ago that Nixon ended convertibility of USD to gold. Bretton woods only ~30 years before that. Hard reserve currency was norm for thousands of years. Fiat will end soon.

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risk adjusted return at 16k US token per BTC….👀 Just think, in the limit, there are “21MM hodlers” who won’t sell below significant sum. Easily.

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Layoffs are giving hard lessons of how money printing distorts prices causing misallocated capital.

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What’s “price impact” of Elon buys twitter -> trump back before midterms -> probability Republicans sweep Congress Predictit has probability jumping 4% from Wed-Thurs….

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Low key think folks are way over reacting to interest rate hikes and other headwinds. The dot com bubble signaled the coming web1+2 boom. Crypto bubble signaled rise of web3. Coming AI bubble signal rise of AGI. Just gotta find the right price

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A stretch…. How could we measure a cantillon effect of GFC QE on consumer inflation in last 24 months? That is, is there any credibility that GFC QE is contributing significantly to CPI a decade later?

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Tech equities more volatile than large cap crypto past few weeks. Gilts buried in 2022. Makes you wonder about “we have to regulate to protect retail from vol/losses!”….

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Tbh, We should be celebrating crypto hasn’t fallen further Gravity has come back to financial assets as we go 0->4 in FF rate BTC/ETH finding their idiosyncratic vol/return The everything bubble is winding down?

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Happy Columbus Day! May we continue to explore as our progeny remember “what we did to make their lives possible.” The greatest 4 minutes on why We are explorers: -> https://youtu.be/plTRdGF-ycs

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Sustained rise in VIX moving average since 2019. Lingers constantly

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