Prediction markets have resonated with me since I started in crypto 12 yrs ago. It was initially bc I was a degen & wanted quick cash. Now I’m using prediction markets daily not to bet but as an info consumer to better understand the world.

Augur, Veil & others failed. Polymarket now working. How can we accelerate?

been trying to wrap my head around:

1) does it matter that someone bets on the underdog because the potential payout is outsized, not because they believe they’ll win?

2) how is a "prediction market" different from sports betting? isn’t it just a fancy term to describe the same thing wrt other aspects of society?

Thought on 2 is that it isn't?
Except the vibe/view shift that the markets are a great source of information themselves

20. hacking @ https://www.spire.dev/ 
previously intern Nethermind, epns.io

agreed. my current (weakly held) view has been:

1) it probably matters because belief matters, and belief is more information dense than speculation on financial upside

2) its not different. but if that's true then how valuable is the information? sfaik sports betting isn't a good indicator of outcomes?