Predicting AGI’s arrival is tricky, with expert estimates ranging from a few decades to never. Some key challenges that must be overcome include:

Common Sense Reasoning: AI still struggles with understanding the world the way humans do.
Causality & Reasoning: AI models often rely on correlations rather than true cause-and-effect understanding.
Self-Improvement & Learning Efficiency: Human intelligence grows efficiently with minimal data, whereas AI requires vast amounts of training.
Generalization: Current models perform well within their training data but struggle with novel situations.