Founders

people with a high success rate:

a) have a nose for useful data and qualitative signals

b) correctly identify trends and make connections months/years ahead of others

c) use this information to revise their mental models, reason & take action accordingly

many high IQ people fail at some or all three.

Malcom Gladwell’s “Outliers” comes to mind — being in the right place at the right time, by no other virtue than being born into both, is cosmic luck & also essential to not missing pivotal moments (like the birth of personal computing or the early internet’s formative years). Not being too early nor too late