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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Today’s diplomatic efforts in Jeddah may have successfully walked Iran back from retaliating against Israel, in return for a ceasefire in Gaza. I’m not sure this changes much, though. Netanyahu has signaled before his disinterest in a ceasefire, which he deems would only serve to rearm Hamas. This wouldn’t be a problem if Hamas had been eradicated by now, however Sinwar’s fresh appointment as its new political leader is a reminder that the mastermind of the Oct 7 attack is still at large. I can’t imagine Tsahal will turn back until he is captured or killed. Furthermore, the second largest escalation threat remains in the north, with Hezbollah still intent to strike Israel either on its own, or with Iran’s unofficial encouragement. If a direct conflict erupted between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran would not remain indifferent and we’d be back to square one. The region is not out of the woods yet
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Renée Campbell 🎩
@reneecampbell
My understanding is it’s not just Hamas and Hezbollah but the Houthis and more maybe? I don’t see an end to this war anytime soon. They’ll keep attacking Israel as long as they have approval from some of the world leaders.
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Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Indeed, Houthis and also the Shia militias in Syria and Iraq. But they’re presumed financed and sustained by Iran, so it really boils down to Iran’s attitude and ability to keep influencing the region
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Renée Campbell 🎩
@reneecampbell
And UNWRA’s support for them too.
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