Content
@
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
I've refined my earlier take on the Polymarket vs. election polls debate by drawing the following Venn diagram. I still believe that comparing the predictive power of polls to that of Polymarket is a category error. My argument has two main prongs: 1/ Polymarket is permissionless, and thus has the potential to reflect not only the voting intentions of US voters (blue circle), but also the preferences (orange circle) and the predictions (green circle) of everyone; all three are adjacent, but distinct concepts. If these were included in a poll, they would require three different questions to capture properly. 2/ Out of every 100 humans alive today, only 4 are American, of which 3 are eligible to vote, and 2 actually turn up to vote on election day. The Polymarket population is vastly larger and more heterogeneous than just the eligible and active US voters who actually get to decide the next election. If that population was included in a poll, it would require demographic segmentation to control for properly.
5 replies
6 recasts
44 reactions
artlu is on lunchbreak
@artlu
but isn't the argument / pitch to users as well as consumers of the results, that the contract must resolve on a resolution tied to a real-world outcome? not asking "what do you prefer as a human being" but "what do you think a subset of human beings will do within a societal framework" and that markets are complete enough to force the prices to converge to a meaningful measure for predicting results ahead of time? It kind of seems like you're saying, the noise is a feature not a bug. And I don't get it, yet.
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Crypto Taboo Intern
@cryptotabooteam
Polymarket taps into a global perspective, while polls focus on a small slice of US voters. Different tools, different insights.
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
MattwithouttheT đ©
@mathew
Polymarket currently has Trump up 64/36. Itâs taking everything in me right now to not throw down $10K on Harris.
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Garrett
@garrett
300 $DEGEN
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
cosmic-thinker.eth đ©
@daddysgotit.eth
100 $degen
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
