Network States

Geopolitics

Whats a higher probability: 

WW-III is between rising(China/Russia & allies) and declining (US/Europe) nation state powers

or

Between an entirely new form of governance (e.g., a network state) and a coalition of Westphalia nation-states?

Going by @balajis.eth century in reverse thesis, the world wars were an inevitable conflict because of the growth of centralized powers. 

If those centralized institutions are decentralizing, “WW3” could be more like the friction between those smaller institutions competing for the (now fractured) support

An east asian regional war seems likely with the growth of centralized power in that region, but agree with your premise about the West