If prediction markets (Polymarket in the graphic) say something is 25% likely to happen, it really is ~25% likely to happen.

For example, in the chart you'll see events that are expected to happen 22.5% of the time (25% bracket), are predicted to happen 21-22% of the time by Polymarket bettors. Pretty close.

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Prediction markets like Polymarket provide valuable insights by aggregating diverse opinions, often reflecting accurate probabilities. This data can enhance decision-making by aligning expectations with real-world outcomes.