In case you’re wondering what my crypto market astrology is telling me.

1. Bitcoin is the most likely reason the whole market takes off.

2. Seems likely to happen after the current economic chaos (the administration seems determined to force the Fed to cut rates).

3. Independently, crypto legislation seems likely to pass before the midterms. Most likely to benefit from legislation is stablecoins, but still decent chance for security-commodity spectrum for digital assets framework, ie when does something become sufficiently decentralized.

4. The biggest unknown is where are the apps and will they drive use adoption. Stablecoins are mostly infra and would expect the biggest winners to be incumbents with large existing user bases. 

But there’s clearly opportunities for break out, novel consumer apps that can onboard users to crypto—either explicitly or (more likely) as crypto under the hood.

Working on Farcaster and Warpcast. Longer thoughts at https://dwr.email

Why do you think bitcoin will still be the most likely reason market takes off? We already have seen bullish news and in favour of bitcoin from us and big markets still it goes down. What is the exact thesis behind the first point?