One way to look at the possible effects of deepfakes in politics is to look at "shallow fakes" that have been possible for a long time.

For example, this screenshot purporting to be a "you're free to say whatever nasty stuff you want" whitelist for twitter. I actually have no idea if this is real or fake, but there definitely are some people who are treating it as real, imo without sufficient evidence. And yet, the effects of things like this are pretty bounded.

This feels like a plausible outcome for deepfakes in politics. The smart people know not to trust a politician's statements without confirmation on official channels, and less smart people get tricked, as they do today with shallow fakes. If something fake goes viral, Community Notes can help on the margin in making it clear that it's fake. Most normies don't actually look at this stuff in real time, and so the effect ends up not too bad. This is the strongest case for not being too worried.

The place where I am *more* worried about deepfakes is...

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https://superrare.com/artwork/eth/0xb97b5628a41f380706731499a76a042c74a3e20f/9

My hot take re "too much investment in infra": there's too much investment in *some kinds of infra* and not enough in others, and what's actually going on is, people want to invest in "the casino" but still feel good about themselves, so they invest in the subset of infra that gets spillover profits from the casino.

And not enough investment in OPEN SOURCE infra... we are still quite small and need to foster innovation, not close it off.

Motte: the universe was created and is sometimes intervened in by an agentic entity ("god", "simulator"...)

Bailey: the Christian Bible has unique insight into the inner workings of that agentic entity

Two different claims (really, three different claims)

https://x.com/jd_pressman/status/1812889834589212974

https://fc-polls.vercel.app/polls/f2b3765d-cea1-4189-84d5-7af425716c7d

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The human heart usually does not die in major events, but rather those silent wounds that you repeatedly pull out and deal with. This bad habit has become a fatal injury.

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