Achmond

@achmond

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#Bitcoin Since the August dump, open interest has slowly been recovering. It has roughly been moving between $9B at the lows ($50K) and $13B at the highs ($70K). Not at any extremely high or low levels as we speak. Just like price.

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$ETH's Grayscale $ETHE outflows started at a more rapid pace than we saw with $GBTC. But at this point ETHE is at the same percentage of assets lost since inception compared to GBTC. The big difference is that the other ETFs didn't get nearly as many inflows as we saw with BTC.

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#Bitcoin Small CME Gap created this weekend at the $60K region. Price has basically sold off straight from the futures open with little to no bounces. Interesting, as stock futures are mostly flat/green.

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#Bitcoin Trading back at the mid range from the channel. Breaking higher here could lead to another attempt at the top side of the channel and an eventual breakout. The lower side now sits at ~$51K while the upper side sits at ~$66K.

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BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation falls to 2.5%, lower than expectations.

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#Bitcoin This cycle is like no other. Price made a new all time high before the halving and has stalled since. Technically, it's still ahead of where previous cycles would be relative to the previous cycle highs. That's why I feel like these past 6+ months are not that odd.

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#Bitcoin Indeed didn't respect the .618 but did bounce from the .786 for now. This has been the most reliable level in terms of fibonacci retracements this year as I've been highlighting. Anyways, this is the last place for a "higher low" that I like. Below here = wick fill.

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#Bitcoin Rejecting from the Daily 200EMA and trading back below the April "War FUD" lows. $56.5K & the Daily 200EMA are key levels to retake for the bulls at some point to change thing around. Next level up below is the $52K-53K level which price closed above previously. Have a good weekend!

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Historically speaking, September is #Bitcoin's worst month. The average return is -4.36% in the past 12 years. That's about what it was trading at today. People seem to be preparing for an absolute -50% destruction of a month. It's never that extreme.

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#Bitcoin Getting very compresssed in this range which it has been trading in for the past month. Likely going to see a relatively large move from this point when one side gives in properly (without just being a wick).

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The Crypto Fear & Greed Index still sitting at close to its lowest point this year. The absolute low was earlier this month during the big flush. Generally it gives a decent idea about sentiment but rarely is a good buy/sell signal as it can stay high or low for long periods.

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#Bitcoin Took out a lot of liquidity below. Still has that massive zone at 70+. But don't fixate on it too much yet. If price were to start trading within a few percent of it, then watch it as it's more likely to get taken out. For now we remain near the lower area of the chop.

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#Bitcoin Closed back above the Bull Market Support band yet again. This is a key level to hold on the higher timeframe. It's not rare to see a few week deviations around the band like we've been seeing. If the bulls want to push, they got to start doing it here though

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After the Pump, a lot of the Price movement to the Upside was Perp Driven. This means a lot of retail was longing Bitcoin with leverage, at resistance. That will eventually be cleaned, giving up a tiny retrace to enter again.

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I don't like to fall into controversy. There was just one Short trade available, from 61K to 58K. This trade was taken by us Publicly. However, when the market structure is Broken. Rate cut is imminent. Resistance of 200 EMA on 4 hour is being broken after MS change, it made Zero sense to short. It was common sense. There are a lot of loud mouth disrespectful Bearish traders who never change their views but this was my logic. Unbiased, trading with common sense and chart

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#Bitcoin Still testing the underside of the Bull Market Support Band. $BTC has now been consolidating beneath the band for ~3 weeks. It will be key for the bulls to retake this to flip the momentum back to bullish in the coming weeks/months.

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How to figure out where we are in the cycle? I use Higher TimeFrame Charts on Total Crypto Marketcap and Bitcoin and altcoin dominance. Some recent observations: 1. Total crypto market cap is right against the strong daily resistance at 2.12T. 2. Breakout over the next few days sends us to $2.4T, assuming Bitcoin leads the break up and altcoins follow later in the year. 3. Any pullback to 1.8-1.9T could be the pico bottom and the last pullback before the real run this bull market.

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I strongly believe this is the same Phase we felt after the last Halving. People thought it was all a hype. Negative News. Market fear, and then instant Pump. Leaving so many sidelines. New Hero coins will appear. Old Coins will die. Bitcoin Will Pump as usual.

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Most of #Bitcoin's returns are made on Mondays, Wednesdays and Sundays. Thursday has historically speaking been a bad day for BTC. This makes sense in a way as Wednesday is the best so that balances each other out again.

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#Bitcoin Still consolidating at the mid range of this massive channel. This remains the main pattern I'm looking at on the higher timeframe. A break higher would confirm a break in market structure and likely the start of a new leg up.

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