When will NFTs come back?

1. If you believe blue chip NFTs — Punks, Autoglyphs, Art Blocks, etc.—are similar to art, then you need them to become and remain popular with high status wealthy people who collect art today. Ownership of said NFT needs to serve a signaling value.

2. In 2021, there was some crypto-to-mainstream crossover, e.g. Jay-Z and Steph Curry, but it didn't last (although Jay-Z is still a Punk pfp). And even in that case, celebrities != high status wealthy people who collect art today. The irony is the ConstitutionDAO villain—Ken Griffin—is the ideal target for becoming interested in NFTs.

3. So how do you change that? Initiatives like @nodefoundation in fancy places like Palo Alto are a good start. Additionally, any time a major trad museum or auction house does something with NFTs, there's incremental progress.

4. But I suspect the two biggest factors will be: 1) generational change (very slow) and 2) increased screen time with next gen VR / AR (nearer term).

NFTs will be back, because the metaverse won’t run without them. 💾