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@0xpopo
💡Popo data analysis💡 🥺 Why might the selling pressure from Mt.Gox not be as bad as we think? Let's take a look at the conditions for returning Bitcoin to the victims first 👇🧵
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1/ ✅ Yesterday, the market plummeted due to the announcement of BTC and BCH restitution to Mt.Gox victims, causing panic as people feared a large influx of Bitcoin into the market. So, I went to read the details and conditions of the BTC restitution and summarized them as follows 👇
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2/ 1️⃣ The total BTC claimed for restitution is approximately 141,000 BTC, about 15% of the total 2️⃣ Many victims have chosen to "sell" their claims to a fund 3️⃣ 75% of the fund and victims have chosen the "Early Payout" option, receiving BTC in the first batch this July, albeit at a 10% reduction, totaling about 95,000 BTC 4️⃣ Out of these 95,000 BTC, 30,000 BTC belong to the fund and the remaining 65,000 BTC belong to general victims 5️⃣ The 30,000 BTC with the fund are likely hedged through shorts, which means upon receiving these funds, they'll need to cover their shorts and sell the BTC outside the market (OTC), thus not significantly affecting the price 6️⃣ The remaining 65,000 BTC held by general victims are likely to be held longer, as those in need of immediate cash have likely already sold their claims 7️⃣ BCH is concerning as it might be sold off more heavily, as victims did not purchase it but received it for free in the 2017 hard fork
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