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Phill Konieczny 09.09.2024 🔵 Bitcoin remains in a sideways trend zone. 🔵 Market sentiment is very negative. Phill expresses that this actually pleases him because historically, price increases tend to begin during such times of negative sentiment. 🔵 Phill presents several factors that help determine whether the market is overvalued. Based on these indicators, he expected a correction after the March all-time high (ATH): 🔷 VDD Chart (Value Days Destroyed): This shows how long investors held Bitcoin, how long the price rose, and at what price level it was sold. 🔷 Bitcoin Cyclicality: A comparison of Bitcoin’s price behavior in previous years. 🔷 CBBI (Bitcoin Bull Run Index): A collection of various on-chain data. 🔷 Fear and Greed Index: A metric showing the overall sentiment in the market. 🔷 Insufficient Bitcoin corrections: In previous cycles, Bitcoin often saw corrections of 30-40%.
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🔷 Duration of growth periods: If growth continues for an extended period without correction, a larger drop should be anticipated. 🔷 Mini Altcoin Season: These occur before the largest price surges in each cycle. For a time, altcoins significantly gain strength, after which their bubble bursts, and they lose value drastically. 🔵 Phill believes that price increases are imminent. The VDD indicator shows that the market is currently undervalued. 🔵 The CBBI, which showed market peaks in March, currently stands at 57 points, signaling enormous potential for Bitcoin. In the previous cycle, the CBBI at the current price levels was around 70 points. 🔵 Phill argues that the recent market declines have opened up considerable room for the upcoming increases. 🔵 Fear and Greed Index is at levels typically seen during the bottom of a bear market. According to Phill, the fear in the market is overly exaggerated and unjustified.
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🔵 On September 18, there will be a meeting where a decision may be made to lower interest rates. When overlaying the interest rate chart with Bitcoin prices, it's evident that they are inversely correlated. 🔵 Historically, following U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin has always seen price increases. 🔵 Long-term addresses are consistently accumulating new Bitcoin, creating support at certain price levels, which also provides a foundation for future price increases. 🔵 75% of all Bitcoin has remained unmoved in wallets for the past 6 months. 🔵 In August alone, long-term addresses accumulated 262,000 BTC. 🔵 Bitcoin addresses holding a minimum of 100 BTC are at their highest level in 17 months. 🔵 94% of Bitcoin’s max supply has already been mined. 🔵 Historically, when Bitcoin was in the red zone on the Stock-to-Flow model, it entered the so-called "banana zone." We are currently in this zone.
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🔵 FTX will release funds in Q4 amounting to $16 billion USD. Phill believes that those who receive their funds may return to the market. 🔵 The Central Bank of Norway has invested in Bitcoin. 🔵 Australian ETFs continue to accumulate Bitcoin. 🔵 Goldman Sachs is also investing in Bitcoin. 🔵 El Salvador is building a Bitcoin City. 🔵 60% of the world’s largest funds have revealed that they are investing in Bitcoin. 🔵 South Korean pension funds have also started investing in Bitcoin. 🔵 Qatar has introduced transparent cryptocurrency regulations. 🔵 The leader of Venezuela's opposition has stated that if she comes to power, the country will use Bitcoin as a national reserve. 🔵 The market sentiment is currently very negative, and according to Phill, this is precisely when the market tends to bounce upwards.
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