Talked to a few people in India who manufacture and export clothing to US brands. 

The most likely outcome if tarriffs stick for a year is that manufacturing still stays offshore, but the average American gets lower quality stuff for the same price.

Flexport's team was able to reverse engineer the formula the Administration used to generate the "reciprocal tariffs." 

It's quite simple, they took the trade deficit the US has with each country and divided it by our imports from that country. 

The chart below shows the https://t.co/01bUpfKgk8

This is nuking every single supply chain that passes through the US in any way, under the illusion that 45 years of deindustrialization can be fixed in one day of 45% tariffs.

Countless low-margin businesses, including US exporters, will be pushed into unprofitability.

Balaji

Talked to a few people in India who manufacture and export clothing to US brands. 

The most likely outcome if tarriffs stick for a year is that manufacturing still stays offshore, but the average American gets lower quality stuff for the same price. 

https://x.com/balajis/status/1907645443221463105

Technowatermelon. Elder Millenial. Building Farcaster. 

nf.td/varun

stocking up used to be smart. Buy a ton, ship it cheap, stash it in a warehouse. Profit.

That playbook? dead and buried.

W/ tariffs and interest rates going up, holding extra inventory is like burning cash in slow motion. Warehouses aren’t savings accounts anymore—they’re money pits.

The new reality? JIT. Light, fast, precise.  

Adapt or get buried under boxes you can’t afford.