not even trying to fudge around or sound like an alarmist - NO i don't think we'll have a -70% nuke like BTC did for COVID - the biggest disaster style event to hit markets.

Can we have a crash though? Or a sustained downtrend till Nov election? yes.

Can we go to $40k (y/o)? Possible.

What could cause this kind of volatility? 
- external event (war escalation)
- fear/risk of recession (real or not)
- black swan, big going under, P/E news scaring markets etc
- crypto isolated - eigen or something stupid or fud

or im totally wrong and dumb for mentioning this. i just wanted to point this out as a precaution as I feel sentiment feels uncertain, complacent in new bull starting etc.

fwiw - im mostly still spot long in many assets. from memes, tao, few majors. am thinking it'll be wise to put on this kind of hedge short on BTC at least though. 

not financial advice. not trying to be an alarmist or anything. just posting because my intuition says so.

the hold of a psychologically significant level like 60k is a strong sign. it can also be argued that locally we are creating a inv h&s (barring august 5th / japan wick) - could be bullish. however, i am still cautious and see markets till election time a toss-up. i will NOT fade the market. i am still net long but i look to play level to level opps in both short and long sides on btc. in quality alts (and few memes) i stay long and don't change core long positioning: TAO, SOL etc. 

i think one still should wait above 70k+ for giga bull-run move. until then, it's level to level. 60k support, 63-65k resistance. pass 63-65k then 70k resistance. if 60k breaks then we know 55k holds. level to level.

p.s i don't subscribe to trump bullish / kamala bearish. markets will be fine regardless, in crypto. ppl say the same dumb stuff about R's better for markets or economy or vice versa. it's all the same. they all want markets to do well, innovation to continue, print money etc.

microsub.

Husband. Foodie. Ex Antennae Ventures. Dog lover!