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really interesting article about the shift in evaluating catchers with robo umps in the near future.
a quick breakdown on how we get here and what’s in store for the future of catching:
1. the decade of “framing”
over the last decade or so, we’ve seen a shift in teams emphasizing “framing” as a skill catchers need to have.
framing is the ability for a catcher to make a pitch that is a ball, look like a strike. there’s a lot of technique behind this, but social media typically highlights catchers over-embellishing framing.
framing is where the bulk of defensive runs saved is created, which factors into wins above replacement (war). so naturally, there’s an emphasis on it from an analytics standpoint, too.
if cal raleigh wins mvp this year, his defensive value (mostly from framing) will set him apart from judge. on pure offense, judge will win every time.
2. a rise in stolen base attempts
the introduction of the pitch clock and limited disengagements tilted the scales in favor of base stealers.
runners know pitchers have finite pick off attempts and a pitch clock to manage, making it easier to steal a base.
catchers can manage the run game indirectly with framing. stealing strikes and give pitchers count leverage (ex: 0-2 or 1-2) which can reduce the probability of a runner stealing.
add in a great pop time and strong and accurate arm, and catchers can help prevent runs.
3. offense as a huge bonus
there’s been more of an emphasis on defensive capabilities than offensive ones for catchers in this decade.
offense, especially above average production is seen as a huge bonus.
4. the robo ump future
with robo umps, framing becomes a useless skill and metric for catchers. a strike is a strike, a ball is a ball, there’s no way for a catcher to legally steal a strike from a robo ump.
given that future is on the horizon, teams have already shifted how catchers are evaluated.
more emphasis is now placed on offense and athleticism. catchers need to hit, block balls, and manage the run game effectively.
5. an interesting transition phase
over the next decade, we’re probably going to see a really interesting shift in organizational philosophies around catchers.
some will prioritize defensive minded catchers with great framing ability to squeeze the last few years of value before the shift to robo umps.
other teams will likely draft and call-up more offensive minded catchers who may not be analytically poor on defense due to framing metrics but turn into analytic darlings once robo umps are implemented.
in free agency and contract extensions, it’ll be really interesting to see how teams value catchers.
patrick bailey is likely the most interesting case since he’ll be arbitration eligible during and potentially when the shift to robo umps happen.
bailey’s value is completely tied to framing and managing the run game. he’s produced 1.4 war this season already despite being -13.6 on offense.
will the giants offer him a long term extension with robo umps in the future? if the giants go to arbitration with bailey, how will he be valued? if offense matters more with robo umps, is bailey relegated to a backup catcher in the future?
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45690557/mlb-draft-evaluating-offensive-catchers 0 reply
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should the pirates trade skenes at the deadline?
some overall chatter about this, so doing a quick breakdown on why the pirates should.
1. the pirates inept offense
the pirates rank bottom 5 in the league in many offensive categories like weighted on base average (woba) and lack impact bats in their farm system.
the only way the pirates can likely add offense is either free agency or through trades. as a small market team, competing to sign an impact bar is pretty much off the table, so that leaves one option-trades.
2. paul skenes is a top 5 cost controlled pitcher
skenes has dominated since entering the league and is in the 99th percentile of qualified starters in mlb.
he’s also still on his rookie contract that pays him league minimum and has another 3+ years before reaching free agency.
a generational talent at basement prices? teams will literally line up and trade their best prospects for him.
3. the likelihood of tommy john
skenes like all hard throwing, high spin rate pitchers is likely at higher risk of tommy john. while he hasn’t yet, trading him now is likely capturing peak value.
the team that trades for him may lose him for at least a year due to tommy john at some point in his career.
4. small market, small budget
while the pirates have signed some of their franchise players to long term deals, skenes will command way more than bryan reynolds franchise setting contract (8 years for $106.75m).
the pirates highest payroll is just under $100m. now consider that the highest paid pitchers sit around $35m-$42m a year. it’s also not inconceivable to believe skenes could command $50m+ given juan soto’s contract (using soto as a comp due to marketability, age, and skill).
it’s almost impossible for the pirates to commit $50m+ a year to a single player given they typically sit between $80m-$100m total team budget.
personally, i hope the pirates keep skenes a little longer but it’s likely a better baseball move to trade him for a massive package of high end prospects vs try to compete in the pirates current state. 4 replies
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