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Nepal Protest, Aftermath, & Geopolitics
Nepal remains under military supervision after deadly youth-led protests forced Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli's resignation, with negotiations for interim leadership ongoing as the death toll reaches 30+ (ground sources claim a much higher number)
The Nepalese Army extended its nationwide curfew until Friday morning, maintaining control of major cities including Kathmandu following the most severe political unrest in decades. The prohibitory order will remain in force from 11 am to 5 pm (local time) on Friday, September 12. A curfew will also be imposed from 7 pm on September 12 until 6 am on September 13. The crisis erupted when Generation Z protesters mobilised against government corruption and a social media ban affecting 26 platforms including Facebook and YouTube. The government blocked 26 social media platforms, including WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn and YouTube. What began as peaceful demonstrations on September 8 escalated after security forces opened fire, killing protesters and sparking broader anti-government riots.
Protesters stormed and burned major government buildings including Parliament, the Supreme Court, and political leaders' residences. Protesters smashed windows and looted local businesses and set government buildings on fire. The country's main international airport reopened on Wednesday after being shut for 24 hours because of the violence. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki has emerged as the leading candidate for interim Prime Minister, backed by Gen Z leaders who cited her anti-corruption record. The 'Gen Z protest' group on Thursday declared that former Chief Justice Sushila Karki will take over as the interim Prime Minister of Nepal. They added that general elections would be conducted within six months.
Divisions remain among protest groups about leadership, with some questioning Karki's selection. The army continues facilitating talks between protesters and political figures to establish transitional governance while maintaining security across the nation. International concerns mount as Nepal's strategic position between India and China amplifies regional implications of the ongoing political instability.
Nepal's political collapse signals a critical stress test for South Asian stability with cascading implications that extend far beyond the Himalayan nation's borders.
The crisis strikes at the heart of great power competition in South Asia. Nepal's strategic location between China to the north and India to the south, east and west, makes it a critical buffer state whose instability reverberates across regional power calculations. China perceives any external efforts to fortify ties with Nepal as a direct challenge to its regional dominance, raising concerns about potential shifts in the delicate balance of power. The timing is particularly interesting. China's Belt and Road Initiative investment reached record highs of USD 66.2 billion in construction contracts in the first half of 2025, with China having boosted economic interactions with Nepal by pumping millions of dollars into projects, ranging from roads to hydropower plants. Nepal's vast potential for hydropower production has placed it squarely on the radar of US foreign policy interests in the region, with China envisioning Nepal as a pivotal link in its ambitious global connectivity vision.
Nepal has become the latest cauldron of political change, after similar youth-led movements in Sri Lanka in 2022, and Bangladesh in 2024, also led to the overthrow of governments in those South Asian nations. This pattern of youth-driven upheavals targeting corrupt elites suggests a broader generational revolt against entrenched power structures across the subcontinent.
The crisis coincides with heightened India-Pakistan tensions, creating a perfect storm of instability. During India-Pakistan escalation, Nepal's efforts to remain equidistant may be recast as disloyalty by New Delhi, with its foreign policy under scrutiny and nationalism rising at home. A more assertive regional posture by India will be perceived by non-nuclear neighbors as encroaching on their strategic autonomy, prompting deeper engagement with China as a counterbalance.
Nepal's economic foundations face immediate disruption. The country's development model, heavily dependent on remittances (33.1% of GDP according to World Bank data) and foreign investment, now confronts fundamental uncertainties. Although BRI investment in Nepal is increasing, there is a significant decline in the overall investment from China, while India's investment in Nepal had an upward trajectory that surpassed China's investment volume. This economic vulnerability creates leverage points for competing powers. Heavy dependence on trade with India made Nepal vulnerable to economic and political pressures, which had implications for Nepal's autonomy and sovereignty. The 2015 Indian blockade remains fresh in collective memory, demonstrating how quickly economic pressure can translate into political coercion.
The army's current role as power broker represents a dangerous precedent for democratic governance in South Asia. The military's intervention prevented total collapse but has effectively suspended constitutional order. This sets a troubling template where military institutions become arbiters of political legitimacy, a model that authoritarian actors could exploit across the region. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki's emergence as interim leader represents a high-stakes attempt to legitimise civilian governance and satisfy protesters' anti-corruption demands. Her previous impeachment attempt by parliament in 2017 over Supreme Court decisions shows the fragility of judicial independence in Nepal's polarised political environment. Her success or failure will determine whether rule of law can provide a pathway out of crisis or whether Nepal slides toward prolonged instability.
Nepal's crisis exposes the brittleness of democratic institutions across South Asia when confronted with mass mobilisation against systemic corruption. The outcome will either demonstrate that youth movements can force genuine democratic renewal, or prove that entrenched interests will co-opt reform movements and perpetuate underlying dysfunctions. For regional powers, Nepal has become the test case for whether economic influence translates into political control during moments of crisis with implications that extend far beyond the Himalayas. 1 reply
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