The Thief’s Almanac

The Thief’s Almanac

brain dump - mainly on markets and crypto

TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

the timing of this fucking bybit hack man i swear to god

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

binance just flagged me as high-risk and is now only allowing me to place "reduce only" trades

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

not sure if anybody is trading $rune right now but boy this one is a blockbuster

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

you know what they say about market not going down with bad news

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

Brutal ranging action and starting to see many people asking if top was already in- which brings me hope (that this isn’t). Hope’s a dirty word tho. The sentiment I wanna see is actually people celebrating nailing the top.

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

wtf it has been one whole year?

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

Had been incredibly balls deep leveraged long ETH coming into the new year lmeoww. Reduced some.

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

https://x.com/salsatekila/status/1870461778725113876?s=46

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

Just wanna give the other half of the pic. There are unique challenges and snakes in crypto. - smart contract exploits - losing private keys - stablecoin depeg - exchange blowup - fundamental analysis traps - ease of access to leverage These are nothingburgers with the right framework. But can see why the average joe stays away. And please for the love of god stay the fuck away.

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

https://x.com/reetikatrades/status/1870357399086747885?s=46

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

After speaking to “normies”, I realised one of the biggest misconceptions is that there is no edge in trading (especially crypto) if you don’t have a $500k system coded in C or something. Trading is at least 50%, imo a lot >50%, psychological. Some people have traits that predisposes as better (or worse) traders. Knowing how to take a loss is imo the *number one* success trade. With a bit of experience, these people can know when not cut losses too quickly. But you can almost never teach people in the inverse sense.

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

If you have a little (but non-zero) experience of trading, The Big Short is probably the most costly (to PnL) movie ever made. Will not elaborate.

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

The *only* thing I did correctly was sawing off my leg so I could crawl out of the dungeon. But I think it would have been hell of an easier time if I had just sawn off my toe at the very beginning.

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

https://warpcast.com/pentacle/0xd3aadef9

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TheModestThief🎩

another mistake was not sticking to my playbook: which was to close my books after 100k. held on for far, far, far too long thinking since it’s a bull I should push it with a bigger size. nothing wrong inherently with this but psychologically I was not prepared to trade with that size. lastly, I was too drawn to an arbitrary round number, thinking I’ll TP at X. ah, that fur coat killed me like the bucket shop traders from the last century.

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