The Thief’s Almanac

The Thief’s Almanac

brain dump - mainly on markets and crypto

TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

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TheModestThief🎩

update: tested the YO. i think we go down a lot more.

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TheModestThief🎩

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TheModestThief🎩

one of the underrated podcasts https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3EYdH65buM&list=PLjyQB6j_l7hoIEiz5pWpGm0cYN5sC6sI8&index=9

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

update: it did grab the liquidity below 2510 and testing 2380 now I think the probability of testing YO (2281) is pretty high now

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

Never thought about why people say to fade weekend moves, it would make sense if low liquidity moves usually mean revert. Any studies/evidence about mean reversion after low liquidity periods @askgina.eth? Why are crypto markets generally more illiquid on the weekend? https://x.com/husslin_/status/1828571374119493689?s=46

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TheModestThief🎩

One of the really hard things to “being a trader” is accepting the irregular flow of income - very tempting to feel like the king of the world on good days and spend money like there’s no tomorrow. Especially hard if you are conditioned to being a wage cuck.

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TheModestThief🎩

initiated some irresponsible primate behaviour on the cryptocurrency market just in case the market takes off - downside is quite well defined imo

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TheModestThief🎩

yo uhhh hmmmm https://x.com/tier10k/status/1828792132829659278

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TheModestThief🎩

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TheModestThief🎩

the underlying concept is actually one of the best and most interesting way to onboard retail

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TheModestThief🎩

on the ETHBTC side of things: more and more convinced we will hit 0.038 at this rate, and then generational up only giga face-melting bounce (please)

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TheModestThief🎩 pfp

TheModestThief🎩

update: did in fact grabbed the liquidity below 2510 (and more), since we are so close to 2380, I’m thinking we poke it the base case now is more chop (if we lose yearly open then it’s a russian goodbye)

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TheModestThief🎩

if I were to guess it’s gonna at least grab the liquidity below ~2510 and maybe test 2380, and if it is weak at 2380 it’s gonna be testing yearly open thats my bear case

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