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need something to bet on? here’s a quick guide to betting on baseball with @bracky
a quick breakdown on how mlb playoffs work, where the best risk : reward is, and a way to evaluate teams
1. how baseball playoffs work
6 teams in each league (american and national) reach the playoffs. so a total of 12 teams make the playoffs.
3 teams will win their respective divisions, and 3 additional teams with the best records will gain wild card births.
2. where’s the best risk : reward?
most of the best and worst teams are priced accordingly. trying to scalp on a high probability (90+%) event will likely result in a loss due to the buy/sell tax on positions.
so, the best r:r is betting on the wild card race. each wild card race has around 6 teams vying for 3 spots.
with ~40 games left in the season, the wild card chase is still wide open. the gap between the 3rd and 4th place is 1 or 2 games.
“yes” and “no” positions could net 400-600 $bracky per share with teams currently sitting outside a wild card slot.
“yes” positions on teams in the wild card could potentially net 100-200 $bracky.
“no” positions on teams in the wild card are probably the top r:r given how close the race is. at 100-300 $bracky per share, you could win 700-900 $bracky per share.
3. a way to evaluate teams
since the wild card race is so close, how can you evaluate which teams are more likely to win a wild card spot if you don’t follow or watch each team closely?
similar to how we look at say batting average and expected batting average for a hitter, we can look at the winning percentage and expected winning percentage for a team.
the pythagorean expectation estimates a teams expected winning percentage based on their run differential (total runs scored - total runs allowed).
essentially, a team with a low or negative run differential that’s still in the wild card race is potentially over performing their current record.
these teams are more likely to regress and fall out of the playoff race over the last quarter of the season compared to teams with high run differential.
this is a great way to identify and bet “no” on teams that are in the wild card race.
if you made it this far, here’s a few rough ideas for queries to ask @bracky
- calculate the pythagorean wins of wild card teams
- identify teams likely due for regression or that are over performing their current records of wild card teams
- determine where teams are over performing (is it pitching or hitting?)
these queries can help you determine which teams have a higher probability of falling out of the wild card race and earning you a high $bracky return 1 reply
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