There’s a thought that hasn’t been brought up much, even though, to me, it feels obvious. If the DOJ really plans to sell $6.5 billion worth of $BTC, that’s an enormous weight on the market. For context, the entire publicly announced fundraising effort by Michael Saylor is only $2 billion. These numbers are simply incomparable.

Of course, the DOJ won’t dump all that Bitcoin in a single day. This process will stretch over weeks, maybe even months. But as long as this supply remains on the market and continues to be sold, major speculators won’t rush to buy. They’ll likely wait for the bulk of the supply to be absorbed to avoid being caught in a market still under heavy pressure.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve has already signaled that it doesn’t plan to create a Bitcoin fund. This means there’s no institutional safety net for the market.