wake on Warpcast

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X has just unveiled a massive update to their creator revenue share program. What do you think of this? Me? I’ll take Farcaster & Moxie over this all day long. https://x.com/x/status/1844066291625361812?s=46

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wake pfp

been sifting through the actual details of this. there are eligibility requirements, but i can't tell if they're middle of the road or excessive. >must have premium sub... >5m or more organic impressions / 90 days >and 500 or more premium followers x users are compelled to shill x subscriptions to their followers (a shitcoin, basically) on the premise that /up to/ 25% of that revenue will get shared with creators. that "up to" will do a lot of work on behalf of X; it's a global ceiling, but permits them a lot of control over individual payouts. as with their ads program, i assume high profile x users will promote the service hard (like a shitcoin) by showing off their earnings. so it's a ponzu, basically. x users will shill the subscription shitcoin and it isn't likely to produce qDAU (as farcaster has learned the hard way).

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J Finn 🎩 pfp

I need to dig into this full thing this weekend, but love the summary. Ultimately I am not the hugest fan of X right now, but I am happy to see at least an attempt at a “creator model” around Ad/Sub revenue splits. This is where I think the ‘tipping economy’ starts to blossom in 2025 and beyond, and why I think this place is cool. 🎩

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wake pfp

yeah my intuitive sense of things is: if their ad revenue sharing program worked, users wouldn't be quiet about it. we would know and be researching their successful model. pivoting to p2p engagement payments suggests ad revenue sharing did /not/ work and this alternative method won't work either.

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J Finn 🎩 pfp

I agree for sure, and I don’t think this model will work upon surface-level view, but I plan to look into the details more to fully understand it. however, I know they are incubating “X Payments” and have seen rumours they will enable tipping via this mechanism next year, so I find it interesting as a *possible competing platform to here. and more competition means much more capital and attention of course

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we'll see. X is /essentially/ different from farcaster protocol in ways that make the direction that stuff can go very, very different. it might start out looking similar, but centralized revenue goals and poor transparency will change it for the worse over time. x is trying to make money first, and improve the network second. farcaster is trying to improve the network. it keeps no shitcoin as profit. the motive decides the direction.

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J Finn 🎩 pfp

I looked into it a little deeper (can share the link if you want) and from what I understand: - they will share 25% of Subscription Payments with "Creators" - right now they have under 1 Million paying Subs (assume 1 Million) who pay $8 per month - this would mean approximately $2 Million getting shared out of the gate - the run rate of the current Ads Sharing program was about $5 Million per month being shared So they need to basically 2.5X Subs to get it to the same level is their thinking imo. They may, allegedly, also tie this into Grok sub. Hardly revolutionary lol but I see what they are doing from their own business perspective.

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"up to" 25%. Taking directly from their TOS. That matters. Shared among how many users?

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J Finn 🎩 pfp

they marketed “more than $45 Million to 150K Creators” earlier this year, so let’s say 150 - 200K. So ya, not much fat on the bone you are saying per user.

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centralized reward schemes /always/ go down in value as the for-profit company discovers it can get similar work for less pay. twitter is operating at a loss, afaik; seems likely they won't wait long to skim. besides, if it's just incentivizing /frequency/ of interaction between users, coordinated-inauthentic-users (super farmers) will take the lion's share. cc @geoffgolberg thoughts?

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Geoff Golberg pfp

Agree it will be gamed https://x.com/shayan86/status/1844400837453566463

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certainly, instantly, aggressively, and maliciously. will be interesting to see how obviously bad it ends up and how completely oblivious to it x admin must stay. like the cybertruck or tonight's robotaxi. or they nerf the program quickly, otherwise start constraining it.

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Seems like they’ll just let it run rampant, then advertise their inflated engagement metrics lol.

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likely. so run the numbers: content bad people leave bots farm and engage twitter pays farmers... for how long? a luxury ghost town, packed with well paid robots can't last forever, even if they're pocketing 75% of their money. it'll wind down without fresh capital.

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Let’s hope it follows that trajectory. 😂

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nah, they'll just quietly nerf it and no one will notice.

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