change my mind: in its current form, you can make more money using @polymarket to front run MSM's and the timeline's coverage / sentiment of the election than you can make from predicting the actual outcome

it will eventually become "the truth machine," but idk about rn and that's ok its still valuable today

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I’ve grown really skeptical of prediction markets. It’s a lot more about predicting what people will think than predicting the actual outcome. Only when the market is about to close that the “truth” emerges

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I’m not sure we can use prediction markets as a reliable source of likelihood of an outcome, maybe just sentiment analysis. They are probably correlated. Looking forward to seeing the election outcomes to see how accurate prediction markets are, because seeing market swing by 40% based on a tweet or two feels wrong

say more? i agree with you that it has become predicting what people will think vs. actual outcome... but how does that affect how we view prediction markets today? how should we use the market to inform what we think, do, etc. if they aren't "truth" machines in their current form?