Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
I'm trying to think of examples of technologies that were innovative and basically worked, but weren't potent enough to overcome the skepticism eventually, and/or couldn't overcome the deadweight of externalities. Not potent enough: flying cars Couldn't overcome externalities: nuclear rockets Any others?
17 replies
12 recasts
44 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
Flying cars are fascinating, because they've been kinda possible for decades, and they get somewhat lighter and more capable every cycle, but there's fundamental limits to how convenient they can get due to power/weight ratio and power-supply physics. But the bigger problem is that they're simply not that useful.
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
Segways used to be an example, but then they turned it around. The battery/motor tech got capable enough that the sidewalk vehicle category explored into a much larger variety and smaller form factor, even though the original Segway was too big and too early and too useless.
3 replies
0 recast
1 reaction
Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
Reason I'm thinking about this is that the serious bear case for crypto is that it is one of these two things. The fear that the negative externalities are too much of a deadweight I think is largely gone at least from Ethereum (PoW --> PoS) and bitcoin may or may not overcome it. But the "not potent enough" worries me
2 replies
1 recast
6 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
While there are many clever use cases, even weirdly unprecedented and magical seeming ones, so far, nobody has found a true killer app. A potent use case that overwhelms skeptical derision. In a way it's a good thing crypto is practically a "taboo space" as one e-girl who left friend tech said. Good challenge.
2 replies
0 recast
2 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
I think people in crypto who think the thing to do is to woo the hostile influencers who have made it a taboo space are barking up the wrong tree. Not only is that not going to happen, it's the wrong goal. The trick would be to find an application so impossible to not adopt, people are willing to break the taboo
4 replies
2 recasts
13 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
The taboo is in fact a very good market signal. It is the minimum viable value level. If you can't create an application that is potent enough in value that people will risk the displeasure of taboo-enforcers to adopt it, you're dead in the water, and deserve to be.
1 reply
2 recasts
3 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
Like, think of the taboos against using modern medicine and stuff issued by the priests of religions early in the modern era. If you were in need of modern medicine badly enough to risk the displeasure of priests discouraging or even forbidding its use, that said something about the potency of the tabooed innovation
4 replies
0 recast
3 reactions
Venkatesh Rao ☀️ pfp
Venkatesh Rao ☀️
@vgr
If this is the case, then I think we don't have a case. Hedge against centralization is not a potent enough use case, and not a complete enough hedge anyway. Revolts are a cheaper and more complete mechanism. https://warpcast.com/kenyiexyz/0x3a1178
1 reply
0 recast
6 reactions
Phil Cockfield pfp
Phil Cockfield
@pjc
That is a potent "thought rubric" - thanks @vgr, going to dwell on that provocative lens.
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊 pfp
Syed Shah🏴‍☠️🌊
@syed
I’ve always thought crypto doesn’t need to do anything but exist. If the current financial system stays viable and upgrades sufficiently crypto won’t take off. But I’m skeptical of it either staying viable OR being upgradeable. Weak leadership makes crypto inevitable. Patience is only thing needed in long term.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
ken pfp
ken
@kenergy.eth
the whole crypto and decentralization space is really a hedge against centralized parties, IMO it doesn't really provide a more efficient or potent solution than any centralized solutions IMO the only unlock is when businesses get tired of random PayPal/Facebook/Twitter bans and want stability in their business
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction