Marius van der Wijden on Warpcast

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Ansgar pfp

Polymarket Trump odds do seem a bit high. I just bought additional $1000 worth of Kamala shares at 35.4%. Seems +EV. Although of course chances are the market indeed knows better than me.

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xh3b4sd ↑ pfp

So the thing is losing is not +EV. What makes you believe that Harris wins? Odds aside. Why do you play like that?

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Oh I don't (necessarily) believe she will win! Just that as of this very moment, her odds are better than 35% to do so. I similarly had a pretty large Trump position when his odds were at 45% a few weeks ago, because that seemed clearly undervalued. Then I exited that position (at a profit) as the odds swung.

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xh3b4sd ↑ pfp

I guess I understand now what you are doing there. You are a player without any interest in the final result of the market. You are a trader extracting value without any consideration for, in that case, election day. I am building Uvio to counter exactly this extractive behaviour. Because I think whatever is happening on Polymarket is not a public good in the sense that it helps anyone apart from extracting value. I am not judging you in that respect. Just tried to articulate my thinking.

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I’m curious, who or what do you believe they’re extracting value from? To me it seems they’re playing the game exactly as intended.

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Based on the behaviour described above, we still don't know more about the future outcome of the election, which is the narrative being sold to retail. I do not want to make this a big thing, but if Ethereum researchers show their true colours by extracting value from prediction markets, without helping to find signal, while those same researchers try to change the ETH issuance for obscure reasons, then I start to lose faith in this whole experiment. Generally, I do not care about systems that only facilitate value extraction. It often sounds like Pump Fun and Polymarket cater to the same players without creating lasting value. I am interested in finding signals by surfacing competence and integrity, which is what I am trying to do with Uvio. What matters to human progress is competence and integrity, not value extraction. If anyone thinks Polymarket works as intended, then those people can keep playing there. It's PvP. I don't mind. This is not the game I want to play.

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Marius van der Wijden

Isn't what he's doing exactly helping the market to find signal? He's buying Kamala, because he believes its undervalued. So his behavior should stabilize the market and inform a more accurate decision.

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Marius van der Wijden

The only way I see the market not pricing the odds correctly is, if people are using the prediction market as a hedge. It's kinda weird that this is not the case here, since Trump seems to be the pro-crypto candidate, so I would bet on Harris to hedge against her winning. Maybe its really just manipulated for marketing...

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xh3b4sd ↑ pfp

He is helping until he isn't, because he can always leave. Based on this behaviour, the only thing that we know about him specifically is that he has no idea and no conviction about the actual result of the market after all. That is the problem with Polymarket. They push the narrative that the market matters, while nobody cares about the market. Everyone just cares about themselves and the result is fooled by randomness. Uvio fixes this.

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