America

A model for the USA for the next ~10 years: a live player without moral scruples

Upside is that it can dynamically respond to challenges like an overblown budget or shifting world powers. Downside is that it will fail to honor commitments and abide by rules (even those it may previously have set up itself)

Eg. Throwing Europe under the bus and consolidating regional powers under its umbrella while front-running dead players as the current order collapses

Short-term, it’s practical and may stave off more existential risks like insolvency or weakening military prowess

Long-term, it gives up the hope of being the “city upon a hill”. Trust is earned slowly and eroded quickly

The USA may remain a leader in many things — entrepreneurship, dynamism, military might, pure resource abundance, etc.

But it can no longer be the indispensable nation, because it is giving up that story proactively before others can. Whether you mourn this is dependent on how you view it — a coming of age, or paradise lost

Practical short-term, but long-term erosion of trust