topadvert

@topadvert

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@bracky I want in on the Madness! 🏀

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This cycle has been brutal. Old strategies don't work, and your favorite coin doesn't take off overnight. Even top projects struggle after TGE because, let's be real, if a token doesn't pump, no one cares. 1. Liquidity Mining - Projects simply flood the market with tokens as "incentives", creating endless selling pressure. If the team treats the token as a throwaway dummy, why should investors do any different? 2. Unnecessary airdrops - most airdrops reward people who are completely uninterested in the life of the project, who immediately dump tokens into the order book, which leads to a collapse in prices and a lack of real interaction. 3. High FDV, Low Supply - Tokens are launched at inflated valuations, with most of the supply locked in. Once unlocking begins, early investors dump money into retail, killing the momentum for the price. 4. No real store of value - If your token doesn't provide revenue sharing, doesn't provide real value, or there's no real demand for it, why would anyone hold it?

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Growth is not a straight line If success were linear, everyone would already be sitting on their yachts and watching their capital double every month. But the reality is different: ups and downs follow, periods of euphoria follow despondency, and those who are not prepared for this volatility simply disappear. Look at the illustration. It captures the essence perfectly: a small creature climbing up a winding line, which is strewn with flowers. That's growth. It's never a straight line. It's always through pain, through setbacks, through periods when it feels like you're stuck. But the most interesting thing is where are you on this curve? - Someone has already fallen down, thinking that the growth has ended - Someone is just starting out, not understanding how many drawdowns are ahead - And someone is just holding on to the branches and continues moving The market doesn't have to go exactly the way you want it to.

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Honestly, I didn't imagine a cycle where Bitcoin reaches $110,000 and Ethereum doesn't even break its old all-time high. It's unprecedented. That's why I didn't lock in ETH. I should have sold all my ETH at the same time, but I couldn't believe that it would NOT repeat Bitcoin's movement. Ether will probably be my most fatal mistake this cycle. However, the current situation is that Trump will likely push for low interest rate conditions. Many have forgotten how wildly the markets rose when money was printed and rates were low. If Trump makes rates low, he will drive all risk assets away. Given the speed at which he and the institutions are buying up Ethereum, I am almost certain that Ethereum will set a new record after setting low rates and launching QE

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The U.S. government will now officially hold Bitcoin instead of selling it. Essentially, Bitcoin will become something like gold in Fort Knox for the United States. The fund will be replenished with confiscated Bitcoins (for example, those seized from criminals). No taxpayer money will be used—only already-seized coins. Estimates suggest the government has accumulated over 200,000 BTC, but now they will conduct an audit to precisely determine the amount of Bitcoin and other digital assets they hold. Previously, U.S. authorities sold confiscated Bitcoins, losing $17 billion in potential profits (had they held instead of selling, they could have made much more). Now, they won’t make that mistake again. The U.S. will not sell its Bitcoin. While the market reacted negatively in the short term, this is very bullish in the long run—the world’s largest economy has officially made Bitcoin a reserve asset.

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I just collected "Farcaster: Lion"

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The reason for such a brutal sell-off is that people have lost faith. It is hope that moves markets. Once you lose hope, there is no bottom to the market. This is why many alts are down -90% from their highs. There are no real buyers for most of these coins, only speculators whose hopes were not realized. Upd: for non-emotional traders this opens up good opportunities 😄

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Respect Bybit! The $1.46 billion Bybit hack is wild, and not just because it's the biggest hack since Mt. Gox, but also because of how it happened “Ben and the Bybit team responded extremely quickly, engaging with partners and, most importantly, customers. Within 30 minutes of the hack going public, Ben was on X - not just posting updates, but running a live stream to break it all down. – People rushed to withdraw their assets – Compared to Mt. Gox (where communication has lagged and losses have been constant for years), Bybit's response is decisive. The $1.46 billion loss, while huge, did not cripple operations at all, showing that its risk management strategy had withstood extreme pressure. – What's even more surprising and cool is that Binance and Bitget lent Bybit a large amount of ETH to increase liquidity, showing support between competitors (which is rare in our industry, but everyone wins when trust is maintained)

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Many participants in the cryptocurrency market do not understand that they are in endless competition with all other players. It is a game of skill, knowledge and experience. Without these three components, you simply enter the gladiator arena in shorts and with a wooden stick, anticipating your victory. Naive and reckless. Easy money is a trap for fools who think they can find a loophole in the system. There is no shortcut or easy way to get what you want. There is no secret that will lead you to fabulous wealth. You need to constantly improve your skills, act and gain real experience. This is the only way you will have an advantage over other market participants. Without an advantage, you will lose and will not be able to earn anything.

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When the market looks uncertain, there is no reason to panic. This is an opportunity. What's important to remember now? 📍Approval of ETFs for SOL, DOGE and XRP - Bloomberg analytics estimates the probability above 70%. If this happens, the market will see new highs. 📍 Ethereum is ready to jump: staking through ETFs without the possibility of selling will make Ethereum a scarce asset and send it to a new round of growth. 📍 AI and memes are a combination of the future: AI makes crypto accessible to retail, and memes remain a perpetual motion machine. The casino never dies. 📍 BNB Takes the Stage: Binance is actively vying for the meme market, and a new season on BNB could be starting soon. 📍 Trump is playing for growth: the statement about maintaining the policy of lowering rates is a green light for a new impulse.

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Why is there no shortcut to wealth? Because there are processes, and there are events. Events can only happen as a consequence of a long process. When someone sells a company for $1 billion, it's all over the news. And people often completely ignore the process that led a person to this event. This process was a long and difficult journey that no one witnessed. All wealth events are preceded by a process, a backstory of challenges, risks, hard work and sacrifices made. If you try to skip the process, then the events will never happen. By skipping the process, you will not become the person you need to become for certain events to happen. There is no wisdom or personal growth in a journey that someone else takes for you. Everyone has their own path and their own processes. This is why I always say that investment and capital are the result of long work.

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📈 The end of the memecoin era? Recent market events indicate the end of the global memcoin trend. It is likely that in the near future we will see the emergence of new trends, and liquidity will flow into the underlying assets, behind which there are real products. Unlike memcoins, which are created in a few clicks, behind fundamental projects there are dozens and sometimes hundreds of specialists with a commercial background, scientific degrees, public reputation and a product that has been built over the years and continues to develop.

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Ethereum is being shorted more and more The number of short positions has increased by 40% per week and by 500% from November 2024. 😦 As The Kobeissi Letter analysts write: “Never in history have Wall Street hedge funds shorted so much Ethereum.” We believe in Vitalik and that he has a plan 🙏 But at the same time 📊 ETH ETF dominates BTC ETF According to Lookonchain data, inflows over the last 7 days were: ▪️ BTC ETF – +355 BTC ($34.58 million) ▪️ ETH ETF – +142,958 ETH ($379 million) As a result, the influx into Ethereum turned out to be 10 times greater than in Bitcoin. Funds, after all, take advantage of the weakness of the ether to gain as much of the bag as possible 🤑 I think now is a good time for a short squeeze. What do you think?

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The story of a hamster who constantly bought in spades (about me, that is). I bought Bitcoin for the first time in my life in 2013 at the very peak of that cycle (around $1190) 🤦 Seeing the fall that followed, I recorded losses and noted in my head that I had fallen into some kind of scam (a bubble that burst). Bitcoin then fell hard, at the bottom the price reached only $160. The next time I thought about Bitcoin was when I saw headlines that it had reached $4-5 thousand. Then these headlines became daily. Bitcoin grew by thousands of dollars every day and, in the end, I bought it again at peaks of about 20 thousand dollars😅 Today I see that even buying at the 2017 peaks is a very good deal. Everyone would like to buy Bitcoin for $20,000 today, but they are unlikely to be able to. Buying at the 2013 peak ($1,200) seems like a FANTASTIC ENTRY POINT.

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Will Bitcoin reach $70-80,000? Many are expecting Bitcoin at $70-80,000 and comparing the current event with the Covid crash. But people forget that Bitcoin has changed a lot since then. Previously, Bitcoin was only the main cryptocurrency. Today, Bitcoin is a world asset; it is compared with gold and other assets all over the world. That's why he didn't make a big correction. There is a wild buying of the cue ball, too much has already been put on it by big guys. We are entering a cue ball super cycle where it will rise every year under the Trump administration. I wouldn't be surprised to see $250,000 per cue ball before the end of the Trump administration. P.S. Compare the Covid crash, then the cue ball went down to minus 60% and the violas along with it. Today the picture is completely different.

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AI agents: a new way to lose your money The market is again overwhelmed by hype. This has never happened before, and here it is again. Now everyone is being sold “smart AI agents” who supposedly analyze the market, give accurate signals and help make money. But successful investing is not about signals, magical algorithms, or forecasts for the next month. Real capital is built over years, not through instantaneous impulsive decisions. We worry constantly. We are reviewing our portfolio. We change something because it seems better than doing nothing. We do this again and again. This is human nature. And in this noise we lose sight of the main thing. And the main thing is that over time, strong assets grow, and everything else falls to the bottom. But instead of simply following this logic, people complicate the process. The whole point of the market is to force you to constantly do something.

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📈 Let’s understand the reasons for yesterday’s market fall Yesterday the crypto market fell significantly, let's find out why this happened. So the price of Bitcoin collapsed from $105,000 to $98,000 in less than 12 hours. The US stock market also showed a decline. The Nasdaq accelerated its decline in the premarket, with markets now trading 1.5% below Friday's closing values. Main factors of the fall: 🟢Yesterday trading in the US began with a fall, which is due to increased attention to the new AI model from DeepSeek; 🟢Before the FOMC meeting, there is a desire of market participants to reduce risks; 🟢The market is experiencing a shortage of major events, especially after Trump's inauguration, after which the direction of movement remains uncertain. Put “❤️” if you liked the post!

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This quote from Michael Saylor best captures the essence of the crypto market. When the charts rise and fall, beginners begin to panic, and experienced players begin to take profits. The current volatility is due to the influence of factors such as Trump's statements and the launch of the startup Deep Seek, which opens up new horizons for crypto. Such events not only cause movement in the market, but also create unique entry points for those who understand their significance. If your portfolio is already built, this is a great opportunity to add strong assets. But it is important to remember: the strategy is different for each deposit size. It is better to allocate small deposits to promising low-cap projects, and large deposits to fundamental assets with lower risks. Now there is a game of nerves in the market. The main thing is not only to arrive on time, but also to know how to proceed further.

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@topadvert For the last six months, I have seen a negative crowd mood towards ETH. Vitalik is accused of not allowing hard workers to earn money while memcoins are shooting for hundreds of X's. The disappointment of the crowd in Ether is a good indicator for me to increase the amount of it in my portfolio.

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@topadvert Many expected that we would have a pump this spring and leave the bear. But it looks like we are in for a long bull run with the growth of attention markets. There will not be enough liquidity for everyone; the market will grow, but slowly. But attention markets will grow exponentially. Memes and AI agents are exactly markets for attention. Attention economics here.

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