skininthegame

“Create your own market” could be a killer growth catalyst for prediction markets.

A new business model is unlocked for creators when anyone can create a market on anything and generate a fee.

Thoughts?

I think it's *possible*, however I believe much more consideration needs to go into it than most people believe. Letting anyone on the internet create a financial derivative resolved to a subjective outcome can lead to precarious situations. Also markets then become very catered towards what oracle is resolving it.

Poyo deploying trick markets *really* killed Augurs vibe for at least 1.5 years. A lot more damaging than it appeared to be. Many traders and power users told me they never came back after that.

As much as I am a permissionless maximalist, this one still cuts me a weird way, just because I don't actually know how to approach it from a sound POV where you're not risking harm upon traders. Probably biggest +EV hard problem for PMs to solve.

You probably give 'templates' for reoccurring/common market types "price of X asset", "score of Y event", etc - and traders just really need to know that completely custom markets come with a much higher degree of risk. You'd probably see a "bad" resolution in ~10-20% of them, on accident.