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✳️ dcposch on daimo
@dcposch.eth
very lucky situation for polymarket. one giant "game" everyone's following, razor thin edge, constant switching of who's in the lead. free engagement from heaven. big test now is how big can they grow & once election is over, can they parlay their amazing distribution to something new.
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Thumbs Up
@thumbsup.eth
I’ve pointed this out before, but one of the reasons betting isn’t usually allowed on elections is because the more value to be had by a candidate losing the more likely assassination attempts become. Seems relatively prescient critique given this evenings news.
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shazow
@shazow.eth
I bet we'll see assassination markets someday (for better or worse), but I'm sus that it's an effective use case with the current setup. You'd need to take a big enough opposing position to be worth it at ~1:1 to profit and *get* away with it. Anyone who can afford that probably has better ways to make money? Pollute the well water of a small town and sell them bottled water or something. Alternatively you're so wealthy that you're already exposed to the outcome of the election that a prediction market position would barely move the needle (the assassination is worth more to you than the payout from the prediction market). If anything, it could be a half-decent insurance hedge for some specific deals? The special thing about assassination markets is that it's a crowdfunding campaign, everyone throws in a bit and benefits on the outcome directly -- even the poors can participate! Quite different from a single player trying to force an outcome on a regular prediction market.
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Ayush
@ayushm.eth
the counterargument is that stock markets exist and you don't see assassination attempts on elon by tesla shorters
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helladj™
@helladj.eth
Honestly yeah
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